Poll Shocker: Lally Tied with Yarmuth.

GOP congressional candidate Todd Lally released his campaign’s first internal poll after winning the May primary. Lally surprised many with his strong win in the primary, but his landslide victory corresponded with the campaign’s internal polling performed by Rivercity Polling, a Republican-affiliated consulting group.

Rivercity’s latest poll showed support for Lally at 43%, Yarmuth at 44% and Undecided or Other at 13%. The automated poll was conducted from June 20-29, and surveyed 300 likely voters with a margin of error at + 3%.

The Lally campaign welcomed the news, which puts the race in an effective dead heat. This polling confirms the results of a statewide poll conducted in early June by Got Focus, LLC, which showed Lally at 43% and Yarmuth at 49%, but did not have a statistically significant sample size for the 3rd district data.

Yarmuth is shown in both polls to have support below 50%, a typical sign of disaster for any incumbent. This news accompanies the decision by the NRCC last week to place Todd Lally “On the Radar” in their Young Guns program, a status granted to candidates showing significant progress in both polling and fundraising, as well as other factors.

Given the budget disaster awaiting Congress this fall, the poor economy and Democrat calls for tax increases, the trend of support shifting from Yarmuth to Lally will likely continue over the next 4 months.